The dollar fell against the real on Friday, still keeping an eye on the prospects for US interest rates, in a session that should have reduced liquidity ahead of Carnival.
At 10:19 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar fell 0.42%, to 4.9745 reais for sale. On the B3, at 10:19 am (Brasília time), the first due date dollar future contract fell 0.42%, to 4.9830 reais.
“Reduced liquidity with the eve of Carnival and the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday,” said Guilherme Esquelbek, an analyst at Correparti Corretora, about Friday’s session, highlighting the stability of the dollar abroad on a day with an empty agenda.
The dollar index – which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six currencies – rose 0.07%, to 104.200.
The US currency took a break in recent days after a recent surge, triggered by cautious indications from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about the timing of rate cuts. After his comments, several other US central bank officials reiterated the position that the Fed needs more evidence that inflation is actually trending downward.
Futures traders tied to the Fed’s benchmark rate currently see only a 15% chance of an initial monetary easing in March – a scenario that was seen as the most likely at the end of last year.
The later the Fed starts cutting rates, the more the dollar tends to benefit, as fixed income investments denominated in the currency become more attractive in terms of profitability. At the same time, signs of economic resilience – like last week’s robust jobs report – are arguments in favor of the view that the US central bank has not ended its fight against inflation and needs to wait before easing monetary policy.
In this context, attention now turns to US consumer price index data, which will be released next Tuesday.
“Revisions to the US consumer price index and statements by Fed officials are key events that investors closely monitor, given the influence of these factors on inflation expectations and monetary policy,” economists at Guide Investimentos said in a note to clients.
On the previous day, the spot dollar closed the day quoted at 4.9956 reais for sale, up 0.55%.