The dollar surpassed R$ 5.35 and the trend is for the currency to remain strong in the short term.
The dollar is on a surge. Last Monday (10), the spot exchange rate reached the highest value since January 2023, exceeding R$ 5.35. In the year, the advance is around 10%.
Among the factors for the sharp rise were the advance of the US dollar abroad, with the European political scenario weighing on the euro. However, uncertainties surrounding the Brazilian fiscal issue and its impacts on the Central Bank’s interest rate policy also contributed to the rise in quotes.
Although the scenario is one of greater risk aversion for investments in the stock market, XP Investimentos highlighted in a report the possible winners with a high environment of the US dollar.
Continues after advertisingFernando Ferreira, chief strategist, Jennie Li, stock strategist, and Júlia Aquino, quantitative analyst, who sign the report from the firm, put together a selection of nine stocks for protection against a weaker real.
It is worth noting that XP’s macro team forecasts a dollar at R$ 5.00 by the end of 2024, but believes that the real should remain under pressure in the short term.
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The stocks selected by XP’s analysis team have: (i) a positive correlation with fluctuations in the exchange rate (indicated by betas above 0, with beta being an indicator that measures the volatility of a stock) in the past year; (ii) revenue exposure to the dollar above 10%; and (iii) rated as a buy by the firm’s analysts.
Continues after advertisingRead also: Strong dollar scenario expected to continue and may intensify, says ItaúIn the last year, the basket of stocks showed positive returns of 20.8%, against an increase of 11.2% for the Ibovespa.
Since the beginning of the dollar’s rise in early May, the basket had modest gains of 0.3%, in contrast to the return of the Ibovespa, which fell 4.9%.
Continues after advertisingIsolating the volatility derived from the overall market, the most well-positioned stocks to capture the rise of the dollar against the real are BRF (BRFS3), owner of Sadia and Perdigão, and the assets of the state-run oil company Petrobras common shares (PETR3) and preferred shares (PETR4).
“This list adopts a 100% quantitative approach, focusing on the currency effects of the past year. Although we isolate the effects of the general market in the analysis, other macro and micro events may have influenced price dynamics,” the analysts evaluate.
Also on the list are the assets of the environmental services company Ambipar (AMBP3), the technology company Bemobi (BMOB3), the aluminum company CBA (CBAV3), the solutions company for agricultural storage Kepler Weber (KEPL3), the manufacturer of bus bodies Marcopolo (POMO4).
